https://risklog.pages.dev/Recent content on Risk LogHugoen-usRisk LogMon, 03 Aug 2026 23:00:00 +0800https://risklog.pages.dev/log/ai-physical-stack/Mon, 03 Aug 2026 23:00:00 +0800https://risklog.pages.dev/log/ai-physical-stack/<p>Artificial intelligence consumes chips, copper and electricity. That does not mean buying copper is the same trade as buying AI.</p> <p>The distinction matters because a physical input and a financial factor are different objects. AI can raise the long-run demand for electricity and conductive metals while this week&rsquo;s copper return remains dominated by Chinese manufacturing, inventories, the dollar, mine supply and positioning. A power-equipment stock can capitalise years of expected scarcity rents; a nearby commodity future prices a much shorter and more specific physical balance.</p>https://risklog.pages.dev/log/give-alpha/Sun, 02 Aug 2026 19:09:00 +0800https://risklog.pages.dev/log/give-alpha/<p>Quant research has a face for every stage of the process. The expressions below form a complete research lifecycle: conviction, discovery, doubt, cleaning, robustness, production, and finally risk.</p> <p>A good meme is a compressed post-mortem. One face can contain several months of preventable work.</p> <h2 id="ᕙᕗ-serious-derivation">ᕙ(⇀‸↼‶)ᕗ Serious derivation</h2> <p>The idea is still mostly algebra, intuition, and stubbornness. Nothing has been backtested, so the expected Sharpe ratio remains unconstrained by reality.</p> <h2 id="ᕦò_óˇᕤ-high-conviction">ᕦ(ò_óˇ)ᕤ High conviction</h2> <p>The economic story is strong, the mechanism sounds inevitable, and the researcher has begun saying “structural” before opening the data.</p>https://risklog.pages.dev/log/equity-commodity-linkages/Sun, 02 Aug 2026 12:00:00 +0800https://risklog.pages.dev/log/equity-commodity-linkages/<p>What happens to stocks when commodities rise? There is no universal sign, but the question is not unanswerable.</p> <p>I use daily Chinese market data from 2 April 2018 through 31 July 2026: twelve commodity main-contract series, the CSI 300, and Shenwan level-one sectors matched to copper, gold, rebar, coking coal, crude oil, PTA, and natural rubber. After cleaning, the sample contains 2,022 trading days and 413 complete trading weeks.</p> <p>The short answer is:</p>https://risklog.pages.dev/about/Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000https://risklog.pages.dev/about/<p>by <a href="https://github.com/yanpgwang">@yanpgwang</a></p>https://risklog.pages.dev/projects/Mon, 01 Jan 0001 00:00:00 +0000https://risklog.pages.dev/projects/